Chinese Economy: China's Energy Worry

Chinese Economy: China's Energy Worry

For a long time, the Chinese economy is growing at an outstanding pace and I think no other economy saw so much expansion in the last 10 years like the Chinese economy. This growth has taken China into a new level in the world politics. Now China is gradually being recognized as a huge economic power by rest of the world. However, this growth means that Chinese economy is consuming more and more fuels like oil, gas and coal. This matter is becoming a growing concern not just for the Chinese economy but for the rest of the world too. As a result of the Iraq War and destabilizing condition in Middle East the price of oil has remained a cause of concern for the last 2-3 years and the growing demand for Chinese economy can only make matters worse.

Much of the time for the last one decade Chinese GDP experienced nearly double digit growth rate. This way, Chinese economy has turned into the world's fourth largest now. If the current trend continues after 2-3 decades the Chinese economy will emerge as the largest. This means that Chinese economy will consume more energy in future too. The rest of the world is looking at China now to see what the country is doing to address this issue. China has already become the second largest importer of oil. This sounds to be astonishing because only 2 decades ago Chinese economy hardly needed any imported oil.

After the growth of Chinese GDP started at a double digit the demand for oil increased and gradually Chinese economy needed more and more imported oil. Another reason for the increase in demand of oil is the fact that the number of cars in the Chinese street is increasing in a huge pace. In the past, China was a role model for its use of bicycles. This increase in demand for oil coupled with the rising price of oil in the world market in the last one decade for a various number of reasons. To meet the growing demand, China is going after securing supplies from oil fields from various parts of the world. At the same time, since Chinese economy is on a ride, China can afford to purchase oil at a slightly higher price than other countries. The main concern for the policy makers in China now to find an alternate to oil as the global oil reserve is diminishing at a fast pace.

China is actively pursuing the development of alternative sources of energy. China has a huge reserve of coal and Chinese policy makers are now focusing on making the best use of its coal mines. A massive initiative has been taken to extract gas from coal. If this project can become successful then many Chinese cars would run with gas instead of oil. Gas extracted from coal will also work as source of energy for the power plants. Another option is hydro electricity and China is aggressively pushing it. Almost all the major rivers of Asia have originated in China. However, this plan can face stiff resistance from other countries who are in downstream.

China's worry for energy only reminds us of the fact that we have become too much dependent on oil and if we do not give enough importance to finding alternative sources for energy then the future is very bleak indeed not just for the Chinese economy but for the world economy as a whole. The time has perhaps come for us to become desperate for developing alternative sources of energy.

All about Google Page Creator

Google has taken the cyber world literary by storm again with its new product called Google Page Creator. Google Page Creator is a very simple but effective tool that will allow virtually everyone to have their own website at free of charge and without having any technical knowledge. You can create your website in your browser without the help of any other software. The initial demand has been so high that Google was forced to stop issuing new accounts.

Signing up
When I tried to sign up in Google Page Creator, due to very high demand Google had stopped providing new accounts. Of course, I felt discouraged because I always like to see Google as the never ending source of information for everyone. Google asked me to submit my email address so that I remain in the queue for Google Page Creator. However, after 5 minutes I again tried and this time I to my sheer delight I got the account but again felt disappointed that Google Page Creator does not support my browser (Opera). So, I entered Google Page Creator with Internet Explorer and this time it opened very well.
Things to note:
* http://pages.google.com is the homepage of Google Page Creator
* A Gmail account is a must if you want to get Page Creator
* Explorer 6.0 or Firefox 1.0, or higher, with JavaScript and cookies enabled- Then you can work with Page Creator.By signing up with Page Creator I got a sub domain from Google (http://ahmedrazib.googlepages.com/) with a capacity of 100 Megabyte. For me it is so interesting to note that for signing up I did not have to fill up any form. Just my Gmail was enough. Even I did not have to spend anytime for selecting a url for my sub domain. I did not have to do any email verification. I am sure this process will attract many users in Net.

Help section of Google Page Creator
Before doing anything, I visited the help section in http://pages.google.com/-/about.html. I spent 10-15 minutes to read the topics and I was totally satisfied to see that the topics were written in very easy and non English. It provided the necessary information about Google Page Creator. Then I visited Google Page Creator Help Center (http://www.google.com/support/pages). It was written in a very easy manner too. The troubleshooting tips are useful too for a new user.

My first page in Google Page Creator
When I saw my home page Google Page Creator I felt like working an Microsoft Word and MS Frontpage. There are places where I should just click and then type something- It is just as easy as that. No download, no support from any other software. Just type some words and hit the publish button- that's it. If you are not satisfied with the Layout then you can change it within a minute. There are 4 kinds of layouts and all you need is to just click on one of them. The same goes for the Look too. If you are not satisfied with the Look of your webpage then there are 41 Looks to select. I liked some of them while the others did not appear to be very impressive to me.

My first Picture Google Page Creator
There is an option for uploading a picture. You can upload by two ways: you can select an image from your PC's hard drive or you can give a url of any picture from Internet. Both of them worked pretty fast.

Adding a page at Google Page Creator
After I finished my home page I wanted to add a new page titled About Me. The process is almost same like working on the first page. After I finished creating the page (http://ahmedrazib.googlepages.com/aboutme) I really felt that Google has been able to overcome the biggest challenge of allowing everyone to have own website at free of charge.

Will my page be found in Google Search
Yes, it will be because Google has informed in its website that within a few hours of my website being created by Google Page Creator it will crawl and add to its search. When something gets indexed in Google, other search engines wont waste time to index it too.

What next for Google Page Creator and Google?
Google Page Creator is surely one of the biggest revolutions in ICT sector in recent times. Google Page Creator is a giant step in overcoming the problem of ordinary users to make an online presence without any technical know how. By it Google entered into the web hosting industry and the best thing with Google Page Creator is that any website created here is supposed to be blessed with unlimited amount of bandwidth.

Difference between Blogspot and Google Page Creator
Google's Blogspot is very popular among everyone and there are thousands of blogs hosted in Blogspot. In Blogspot, a person needs some basic ideas about webpage design and HTML but in Google Page Creator anyone with the ability to browse Internet through Internet Explorer and Firefox will be able to create their own website.

No ads in Google Page Creator
I am not sure about it yet but I did not see any ads of any company including Google after uploading my website. If this continues, then Google will dominate the market of free websites. I have seen many of my students and friends to get annoyed from Tripod and Geocities about advertisements and gradually losing interest about free web hosting altogether.

Rise of Yen against major currencies: Is Japanese economy heading for a Prosperous time?

This week Japanese Yen became very strong against dollar and it had record gain against dollar for a long time. This rise in Yen came after strong speculation in the media that the Central Bank of Japan is going to change its policy of deflation-fighting from next month (March 2006) which lasted for the last 7 years. According to the media, the price of Yen has risen against 16 currencies including US Dollar and Euro. If Bank of Japan really changes its policy then the price of Yen will increase more against the major currencies. Now the main question to ponder about is that whether this is the sign of the beginning of the recovery of Japanese economy that has suffered recession and slow growth for a long time. In fact, this policy of deflation-fighting has been going on for the last 5 years.
Japan was completely destroyed in Second World War and there was hardly called Japanese economy at the end of the Second World War. However, Japanese companies quickly turned around and from the 1970s thanks to having cheap, highly educated and hardworking workforce Japanese companies started to dominate in the electronics and car industries. This trend continued in 1980s and Japanese economy became the second largest after US economy. It is worth mentioning here that Japan does not have almost any natural energy and minerals like oil, gas, iron etc. A considerable portion of the country is either forest or mountain and earth quakes are frequent in this country. Still, Japan developed so fast mainly because there was a good combination of government efforts and private sector. The government and the private sector both invested heavily in the education sector and especially in industrial research.
In the last 10-12 years Japanese economy struggled after years of growth. After many years Japanese workers started to get worried about job security. The market stopped growing as people started to become conservative in their buying habit for fear of future insecurity. Now it seems that Japanese economy is turning around for the good time. This change of policy is perhaps the first indication of this turn around.

Philippines: not Again!!

The political condition of Philippines has again become volatile because of coup attempt by some members of the army was foiled. President Gloria Arroyo has already declared state of emergency. There has been violent protest in the streets of between anti government protesters and police. There is no sign of the condition improving and it can only bring more suffering and frustration for the common people.
The condition of Filipino economy is not good at and in the recent months the country has come to the spotlight of the media because of political unrest and natural disasters. This declaration of state emergency will perhaps result into more political unrest. Right now, President Gloria Arroyo is trying her best to hang on to power while opposition parties are determined to oust her sooner or later. The economy has become a victim to this political fighting among the government and the opposition. Strong performance by the private sector and increase in remittance sent from the Filipinos living around the world helped to keep the economy moving in the last financial year. This year too, the amount of money from remittance can raise some and at the same Philippine is witnessing a good performance in Information and Communication sector.
Only one week ago, Filipino government and the private sector jointly declared their vision to make Philippines the animation capital of the world. The country has a lot of highly educated and skilled ICT professionals who are trying their best to take Philippines in the next level. Constant political unrest on such a large scale can only undermine the growth in ICT sector. Specially, Philippines has already made its mark as one of the most attractive destinations of animation outsourcing.
The political leaders of Philippines should try to understand the huge potential of the young generation. Otherwise, the world will see the fall of a country with so much potential to succeed in the knowledge based economy of today.

Bangladesh: The next big mobile phone revolution

Bangladesh is very famous to the outside world for its natural calamities and there are plenty to feel the international media. However, Bangladesh now deserves to catch the attention of world media for a different news- growth in the market of cellular phone. In the last 3-4 years an explosive growth has taken place in this sector in Bangladesh, one of the poorest countries in the world and there is still room for more growth in the coming years too as not even 10% of the population are to own have a mobile phone.

The history of mobile phone is not very new in this poor country. In the early part of 1990s mobile phone came to Bangladesh. However, that time, license was given to just one company and naturally, the rate of owning a phone was too high and very few people owned a phone until 1996. From 1997 this sector was opened to some other companies and competition started. However, it was from 2000 that the number of mobile phones saw an upsurge. At first the mobile phone companies focused on high price both for connection and per minute call charge. Thus the increase in number of connections was not very high until 2003. But 2004 saw tough competitions among the operators after Orascom Telecom (OTH) purchased 100% of the shares of Sheba Telecom in Bangladesh. The name of the company was changed to Banglalink from Sheba and in order to get new users Banglalink gave one after another offers in the whole of 2005. For example, in one offer it gave 6 prepaid cards with its every connection. The other companies were forced to react and intense competition took place in whole of 2005. AKTEL, another mobile phone operator, gave 2 sim cards free with the purchase of a prepaid phone card in Internet Fair 2005. This special offer instantly became super hit. Towards the end of 2005 Grameen Phone offered the new subscribers to talk at almost free of cost after midnight. Soon Aktel followed Grameen phone too in this matter. City Cell also came up with same kind of offer. Thus in 2005 the mobile phone market grew 137% in Bangladesh. In 2004 the growth was 100%.
UAE-based Warid Telecom is the latest company to enter in Bangladesh market and they have already declared their intention to pursue a very aggressive strategy to capture a decent market share within in the next 3 years.

BIS Shrapnel, a world famous research organization has predicted that by 2007 the number of mobile phone users can grow to 18 million from the current figure of 7-8 million. It is expected that more foreign investment will come in this sector. Telenor, Telekom Malaysia (TM), Orascom, SingTel, and UAE-based Warid Telecom are the foreign telecom companies who are in the Bangladeshi mobile phone market now.
With a population of 140 million, there is still room for growth in the mobile phone sector in Bangladesh. The mobile handset producers should seriously consider setting up a factory in Bangladesh since the country is strategically located in the gateway between ASEAN and SAARC.

H1b Visa and Asia

Recently American president George called for increasing the number of H1B Visa so that more skilled professionals can come from across the world for scientific and high tech jobs in USA. This call is in a way a surprising matter as American economy is right now not at its best condition. Rising oil price and Iraq war have put the American economy in the back foot for the last few years and rate of unemployment is gradually becoming a major cause of concern for the American people. American workers are losing manufacturing jobs to China and technology jobs Indian workers. Therefore, the call for increasing the number of H1B Visa may seem to be a shock to many. For a full text of the speech of George Bush visit the website: http://www.earnedmedia.org/wh02021.htm.

Why Bush wants to increase number of H1B Visa?
President Bush has emphasized on the need for America to remain highly competitive in science and technology. USA emerged as the world's richest country after the Second World War and it continued to rise and grow all the time. Perhaps the main factor behind this constant growth is highly skilled workforce and entrepreneurs. On the one hand, entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Jeff Bejos almost single handedly and out of nothing managed successfully to build world class companies like Microsoft, Apple and amazon.com. However, they could expand because they always had the best workers. Their workers had varied backgrounds and came from different parts of the world. To allow US companies get best workers from abroad American Government introduced H1B visa under which US companies can recruit highly skilled professionals from other countries. Currently the number of H1B visa that US government issues annually is 65,000 and it was 195,000 a few years ago during the time of dotcom boom.

Dotcom crash and H1B
Things did not go very well for the American technological companies in the last 5 years and a number of companies (especially dotcom companies) were shut down. However, it seems now that the worst is really over and the US government is also getting keen to see USA remain as the market leader in the technology sector. That is why most probably we will see an increase in H1B visa in the near future. Even if it does not take place this time it is most likely to happen next year. Any increase in this number will have a positive impact on the Asian economy countries like China and India are the leaders in getting H1B Visa.

Indian success:
In the last one decade, India was the major player as its workers received the largest number of H1B visas. Good technical know how coupled with high level of skill in English language have helped Indian technological professionals to shine in the US market. Decrease in the number of Visas from 195,000 to 65,000 did not help India at all as the number of people studying in technological fields is increasing all the time. At the same time, those professionals who go to USA with H1B Visa benefit the Indian economy in 3 ways. First of all, they get good salary and when they send a considerable portion of their income to their families in India, Indian economy is blessed with the arrival of hard currency. Secondly, the Indian workers help to uplift the image or goodwill of India as a country with abundance professionals with high technical and English language skills. This paves way for more recruits from India in the coming days. The third benefit is that the workers who work through H1B Visa get real experience in working in USA- the most competitive economy in the world. After completing their works many of them return to India and use their experience and this has greatly benefited the Indian technology sector. Now, India is not only a country with a huge pool of talented techies but also is gradually building a very stable and solid leadership in the technology world. In other words, Indian technology sector is gaining its inner strength.
Let the market demand rule
Indian government and the technology industry have taken the matter of H1B Visa very seriously and are going to lobby hard with US administration when George Bush visits India in the coming days. Indian technology leaders will urge US president George Bush and others in the American Administration to let the market demand determine the number of visas instead of binding it to a fixed number.

What about the other countries in Asia?
China has already established its own presence in the technology sector of USA. China is pursuing very aggressively its own goal of improving the English language skills of its students so that it can be at per with India in the software field. The other countries in Asia that can take advantage of any increase in number of H1B Visa are Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Hong Kong (under China), Singapore, Bangladesh, Philippines etc as these countries are pursuing their excellence in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector and also their workforce are more or less skilled in English language.

What next?
Right now US administration and Congressmen are with a very peculiar dilemma. On the one hand, they are not very enthusiastic to increase the quota in H1B visa as unemployment figure in USA is not very rosy. On the other hand, USA needs influx of the most talented and skilled workers from around the world to keep its leadership in the technology sector intact in the long term. George Bush has already stated his own inclination towards increasing number of H1B Visa. Now it is up to the members of Congress to take the final decision. Whatever way they choose it is going to make some people unhappy- no doubt about that.

Bird flu: What should we do?

It seems that the media has become crazy in its pursuit of the coverage of bird flu. I was tracking down coverage of the flu in Internet and was really astonished to find out that all the major newspapers, magazines, television channels, web sites are in a fierce competition to give the latest information about the spread of flu in Africa, Europe and Asia. There is nothing wrong in it as it is their job. However, what scares me is the fact that they are giving too much emphasis on the scary side of the crisis. This can cause serious emotional fear and unrest to many people around the world- specially to those people who are not so much well informed about the nature of bird flu.
Of course, bird flue is a serious crisis for world economy as it is going to seriously disrupt everyday life in many countries. It will also affect the tourism and traveling industries very negatively in the short term as many people will get scared to travel to the countries affected by this crisis. The one possible negative effect that no one is seriously contemplating is the fear it is causing about eating poultry products. As a result, it will seriously hamper the industry and millions of people who earn their livelihood from this industry. Poultry products form an important part of our daily meals and if many of us want to avoid it then we have to look for alternatives like beef, mutton or even fish. Then, serious pressure will occur to meat and fish producers and suppliers. It is much easier to produce and supply eggs and meat of chickens than beef or mutton. That is why trying to substitute chicken with beef or mutton will not be possible for everyone. On the other hand, from health perspectives chicken is much better than beef or mutton. The second problem is rather psychological. We now live in a world with a lot of insecurities from different matters. Violence and terrorism, drug addiction and road accidents, AIDS- these things are perhaps more than enough to keep us scared all the time. Now we have some things extra to wander about.
The international media should come forward to help the people in overcoming their fear. Bird flu is indeed a very serious matter and it is affecting and destroying thousands of chickens on the world. Now it is no longer limited to the birds only but gradually infecting human beings in various parts of the world. However, the media should give more coverage to the ways of saving ourselves in case of a disaster takes place in our respective cities. There should be more information about the vaccine of bird flu so that we can be prepared very well. If we know about it and if we are were prepared then we will get less afraid. On the other hand, too much of watching and reading so much about the dangerous aspects of flu will only make us more afraid.

Bird flu and its possible impact in Indian economy

Bird flu has struck India at a small scale right now. It is yet to become a major cause of concern for the country. However, there are signs that the Indian government and the people are taking this threat more and more seriously. Already, there has been a huge initiative to cull out thousands of chickens in order to prevent the flu from spreading all over the country. Right now, the main affected area is the western state of Maharshta. The economic impact of this crisis has not still been measured but it is likely to cause serious damage to the Indian economy in several sectors if the flu spreads in other parts of the country.

Naturally, the first and direct victim of the crises will be the poultry industry. Indians are one of the largest consumers of poultry food in the world. In egg production India is the fourth largest country and in case of The annual turnover of this industry is nearly $6.76 billion and more than 5 million people earn their livelihood. No substantial attempt has been made so far to estimate the loss incurred by the industry due to the bird flu crises. The leaders of Poultry Federation of India are trying their best to minimize the loss. They have expressed their optimism that the worst is over and the crises has almost passed India but not everyone is so optimistic. The price of chicken has decreased significantly in many parts of India and if this trend continues then it will adversely affect thousands of poultry entrepreneurs and farmers.

Export potential of this industry is going to be damaged like the local demand. In recent time, Japan showed interest in importing poultry products from India. Naturally, this export possibility will suffer a serious setback. Neighboring Bangladesh has taken strong measures to stop entrance of any Indian poultry products in the country. Nepal is walking in the way of Bangladesh too. Thus, India's export in this sector is going to suffer a lot in the coming days.
After the poultry industry, tourism is going to suffer in Indian economy. India is one of the most attractive tourist destinations in the whole world. Now is the peak season for the country's tourism industry because it is the spring time in most parts of the country and the weather is lovely- not hot or cold too much. Since it is just early days for the bird flu in India, tourism is yet to be affected but if the crisis continues then tourism can suffer same way like the poultry sector. If any considerable decline of the arrival of foreign tourists happens that would effect the airlines industry too. Around half a million tourist came to visit the country in January 2006 which is more than 15% higher than January of 2005. More tourists mean more foreign exchange and more employment for the local people. Indian airline industry is growing at a very fast pace too because of the recent economic boom.

The news of bird flu has caused a fall in demand the poultry products. People will tend to buy more mutton and fish to meet their demands of protein. This is certainly not very good news for a country with more than 1 billion people. Maharastra is one of the most developed provinces of India. Mumbai (previously known as Bombay) port, stock exchange and the main cinema industry (better known as Bollywood) are situated in this province. Disruption of daily life in Maharastra can have serious impact on the overall economy of the country.
It is still very early to say whether Indian economy would suffer a serious setback or not for the current bird flu crisis. However, this crisis only reminds us of the constant uncertainty of international business as well as the need for taking better care of our environment. India is a very poor country and is really ill equipped to face an emergency situation if the flu spreads to human beings in large scale.

Back Again

The blog has remained inactive for a long time and it comes back wtih this post. Fortunately, I have been able to manage a team to work with myself and now we will update it very frequently. Of course, updating a blog daily is a serious challenge but I will try my best for it.